A Predictive Model Based on Quantitative Fecal Immunochemical Test Can Stratify the Risk of CRC in an Organized Screening Program

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted every aspect of medical care, including screening programs and preventive medical care . Organized FIT-based colorectal cancer screening programs make no exception, since their efficacy depends on a multi-tiered series of interventions that were hampered by the pandemic at multiple levels. In detail, the first level of intervention, namely population based FIT tests distributed to the population, has seen a dramatic decrease of number of tests performed for both organizational reasons (i.e. less personnel deployed to testing sites) and for failure to present fecal samples from patients for fear of contagion or impossibility to reach the drop-off sites for state-imposed limitations. Secondly, the referral of FIT positive patients to subsequent colonoscopy was stopped or delayed since endoscopy services have been undergoing only emergent and urgent procedures. Thirdly, patients diagnosed with advanced neoplasia or cancer have seen their endoscopic or surgical removal procedures delayed or canceled . Regarding post-FIT colonoscopy workup, European Screening Guidelines recommend a 30-day maximum span between a positive FIT test and subsequent colonoscopy. It is well known that any delay in post-FIT+ colonoscopy results in an increase in advanced neoplasia and colorectal cancer, that reaches dramatic levels after 6 months .

Our purpose is to develop and validate, using the quantitative level of faecal hemoglobin found in FIT, a simple scoring system to effectively sub-stratify CRC risk of FIT positive patients.